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Why Gaza war has not yet caused an oil price spike
November 22, 2023 | Fixed income
The calamity of war in Gaza since early October has so far had a more muted impact on oil prices than might have been expected. We analyze the market and share our outlook.
Why Gaza war has not yet caused an oil price spike
The calamity of war in Gaza since early October has so far had a more muted impact on oil prices than might have been expected. We analyze the market and share our outlook.
High rates and lower bank lending may lift BDCs
Tighter bank credit conditions may drive new growth opportunities for some business development companies (BDCs).
Sticky inflation is likely if there is no recession
Trends from the labor market and continued wealth imbalance are setting the stage for sticky inflation. Read the October Macro Report.
There’s more to emerging markets than China
Discover investment opportunities in the evolving landscape of emerging markets beyond China. Learn more today.
Debt troubles at Country Garden threaten global blight
China's largest property developer faces a liquidity crisis amid a broader slowdown in its property market. Watch for effects across other sectors and markets.
Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) will face constraints
The Fed is pursuing QT while being careful to avoid market disruption. Compare scenarios for QT and markets in Putnam's Macro Report.
ESG materiality | Analyzing the growing role of ESG factors in executive compensation
A rising number of S&P 500 companies are now tying ESG metrics to executive pay. Explore insights on how this impacts corporate goals and investment opportunities.
The debt ceiling is raised, but the debt problem persists
As inflation sticks around, it is important to think about how it is related to high government debt.
ESG Metrics | Impact report of sustainable investing strategies
Putnam Investments is pleased to share our 2023 Sustainability and Impact Report.
Contracting money supply poses risk to bonds
A contracting money supply paired with the Fed's quantitative tightening is adding bank sector stress on Treasury and MBS markets.
Why favor higher quality as credit squeeze tightens
Prudent credit selection is paramount as the Fed juggles monetary policy and financial security. Get Putnam’s insights on the SLOOS and the tightening credit squeeze.
Economic imbalances could mean deep recession or sticky inflation
A deep recession could have a significant impact on financial markets.
Economic moats | Active investors seek wider moats
Economic moats, also called business moats, are competitive advantages that help a company maintain long-term profits and market share over competitors.
Inflation demands Fed's focus as bank lending tightens
Even as bank lending tightens, the Fed may still need to keep rates high for longer to bring down inflation.
The Fed walks a line between inflation and financial stability
Given the fragilities in financial markets, the Fed will likely move cautiously in monetary tightening to fight inflation.
Will interest rates go down?
Our base case for our strategy remains that a recession will wipe out excess savings, and the relatively low interest-rate environment will return.
U.S. recession outlook as China reopens
We outline possible scenarios for inflation and recession in the year ahead and how global forces play roles.
Expect a pause, not a pivot, as savings fuel spending
In the coming months, the Fed will not likely pivot, but pause and wait with a high level of rates for convincing signs of disinflation.
High job openings signal wage-price spiral
Limited labor supply, higher wages, and a high staff turnover seems to have initiated a wage-price spiral.
ESG: Hearing the signal above the noise
In our view, the best opportunities lie not at the extremes of ESG rhetoric, but at the heart of sustainability substance.
What is the biorevolution?
The revolution in biology and life sciences is unleashing new potential for innovation across many sectors, creating opportunities for investors.
What is a BDC?
A BDC is a business development company. BDCs provide financing to small and midsize private companies. Investing in BDCs can offer attractive income to public investors through private market exposure.
What is the circular economy, and why is it important?
Adapting business models to be less resource intensive creates opportunity for environmental and economic benefit.
Covid-related labor imbalances complicate Fed's inflation fight
Demographic shifts and labor imbalances might have disturbed consumption-saving decisions that impact inflation.
How markets could react to Fed and ECB meetings
A mixed batch of inflation readings moved market expectations, but it is more important to remember the Fed’s inflation dashboard.
Cracks emerge in Europe's resilience
Recent economic data and the outlook for energy supplies are casting doubt on whether Europe has the resilience to withstand a recession.
A look at leveraged loans and CLOs
A recent Active Insights podcast features a discussion of leveraged loans, and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs).
U.S. recession ifs and whens
The U.S. will likely avoid a recession in 2022, in our view. That risk rises next year as the Fed raises rates and China decelerates.
Munis after Q1 — and April — and 8 reasons why we are still constructive
While munis suffered a bad quarter to start 2022, brighter days may be ahead amid strong fundamentals.
Look beyond dividends for income from value investing
To build a value investment strategy, consider dividends in the context of overall income.
U.S. households and asset prices are at tipping point as Fed lifts rates
In a supply-constrained world, reducing asset prices may be the only way for central banks to bring demand and inflation lower.
China sets ambitious growth target despite new lockdowns
China boosts fiscal spending to support its growth target in 2022 amid lockdowns in Shanghai and other cities.
Oil prices face downside risk
We expect oil prices to enter a correction stage and for Russia’s war in Ukraine to play less of a role in oil markets.
Russia-Ukraine War could slow global growth
The war and widespread sanctions will likely have a knock-on effect on economic growth, inflation, interest-rate policies, and the future of renewable energy.
War and inflation put bull market in hibernation
Investors may be underestimating the immense range of potential outcomes for the Russia-Ukraine War.
Oil prices may correct after sanctions-related spike
While the Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia have lifted oil prices higher, current prices may be temporary.
Teaming up on DX: A compelling investment opportunity
As businesses work at a faster pace to modernize their technology systems, compelling investment opportunities are emerging.
Emerging markets walk a fine line
Emerging market assets — especially currencies and bonds — have proved to be resilient amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising interest rates and Omicron.
Oil: From sizzle to fizzle
Oil prices have rocketed to seven-year highs. But we have a bearish view because current prices are unsustainable.
What to know about munis heading into Fed tightening
A look at recent monetary policy cycles to glean insights about munis heading into Fed tightening.
Precautionary stockpiling and its impact on growth
Companies are buying raw and intermediate goods at a record pace, which will influence economic growth in 2022.
Finding growth potential in unexpected places
For franchised U.S. auto dealers, consolidation and the e-commerce imperative could mark the biggest changes to the industry’s structure, possibly ever.
How could the yield curve impact risk assets in 2022?
The Fed's policy changes will have implications for the U.S. Treasury market and other financial assets.
The Fed’s conundrum — $7 lattes, $5 gas, 0% interest rates
We believe the Fed is likely behind the curve in containing inflation with ultra-low interest rates.
Risk managers: Essential partners for delivering performance
A successful risk team is one that can analyze multiple measures of risk and work with investment teams before trades are executed to capture alpha.
$100 oil may be a pipe dream
Oil prices have risen to multi-year highs on surging demand, tight supply, and the crunch on natural gas. We believe it is time to question the current rally.
Consider convertibles to hedge against the risk of rising interest rates
The potential for rising interest rates may mean it's time to diversify a portfolio with convertibles.
Regulatory storm sweeps across China
President Xi Jinping's "common prosperity" campaign to address China's wealth gap has converged with the regulatory crackdowns.
Emerging markets leading the way in innovation
Innovation is driving exciting growth across emerging market countries.
China property problem — Bigger than Mt. Evergrande
Recent default warnings from one of China's leading real estate development companies signaled a bigger property problem in the sector.
Markets see living with Covid-19 as the new normal
Global financial markets might be pricing in a “living with the virus” environment and are adjusting to a lower growth path.
U.S. labor market — 55 is the new 65
Following broad-based recovery in the labor market when the economy initially reopened in 2020, the labor force participation rate has stagnated and started to diverge.
State financial health adds to muni appeal
State financial health has improved as tax receipts rebound and states receive sizable federal aid.
Update on economic growth and the markets in mid-2021
What equity investment style performs best as the economy enters a recession?
Toys, cars, and the U.S. recovery
We believe growth in the United States remains strong, but expectations need to be revised lower.
Don't overlook international small caps
When focused on diversification one asset class that is often overlooked is non-U.S. small-caps.
Time-as-a-Service, anyone?
The evolution of time-as-a-service illustrates the changing nature of economic moats, competitive advantages that protect a company’s market share.
Fiscal impetus and the U.S. labor market
We examine the interplay between President Biden's multi-trillion-dollar stimulus plans, the labor market, and corporate profits.
If taxes go higher, will munis be hurt?
The Administration's recent plan would increase the highest marginal income tax rate but would not likely impact muni yields.
China technology stocks in a reboot, not a shutdown
China’s technology sector has cratered since February and we view the selloff as a buying opportunity in China tech.
From V-shaped recovery to bond vigilantes
The Federal Reserve remains dovish on monetary policy as bond market vigilantes push yields higher.
Clean energy: Myths, reality, and opportunities
We believe many companies are poised to benefit significantly from the big shift toward renewable energy.
American Rescue Plan strengthens state and local finances
The American Rescue Plan Act provides billions in federal stimulus to states and local governments.
Massachusetts budget taps rainy day fund, federal aid
The Governor of Massachusetts introduced a budget proposal that includes a withdrawal from the state’s rainy day fund and federal aid to balance the budget.
Munis in demand with new taxes possible
Demand for municipal bonds continues to be robust in 2021.
Company diversity and social justice
Company diversity is a step toward equity and equity is a step toward inclusion, which is important to company success.
New York confident about recovery
New York leaders are confident about the state's economic recovery.
New medicines and digital tools target mental health
In recent years, there have been several developments for treating mental health. These innovations — which come after decades of slower-paced advances — include novel drugs and digital offerings.
Is inflation poised to return?
We believe that pandemic-related bottlenecks have temporarily lifted U.S. inflation. Still, the underlying inflation trend is weak.
California budget outlook brightens
With revenues coming in higher than projected, the outlook for the California budget is positive in the near term.
Mental health is a business issue: How companies are supporting their employees
Companies are beginning to focus more on mental health at work, and some are offering a wider range of supportive and preventive care.
U.K. starts new chapter after EU split
It is strategic for the U.K. to have a trade deal with the EU given the short- and long-term negative effects of Brexit.
Vaccine not in time for jobs recovery
The U.S. labor market continues to lose steam as fewer Americans were able to find work amid surging Covid-19 cases.
Record-setting muni issuance pauses post-election
Muni issuance pauses post-election, but reinvestment demand typically increases near year-end.
Oil markets pin hope on vaccine and OPEC+
Oil prices are likely to trend slightly higher as OPEC+ mulls maintaining lower output in 2021 and demand recovers in key markets such as China.
Calls for new stimulus as recovery fizzles
Governments are trying to calibrate their policies to support growth as “fiscal cliffs” loom amid a resurgence in the virus.
U.S. politics amid virus surge
U.S. election politics are playing out against a backdrop of an easing recovery, rising COVID-19 cases, and a potential new vaccine.
Munis outpace Treasuries, taxable bonds
The recovery in the municipal bond market continued in the third quarter as munis outpaced U.S. Treasuries and the broader taxable bond market.
China leads, other emerging markets lag
China is leading the economic recovery among emerging-market countries, buoyed by stimulus and stringent COVID-19 measures.
Pandemic persists in policy patchwork
Fiscal and monetary policies will be central to the economic recovery between now and the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine.
U.S. economy remains a centerpiece in 2020 vote
Fiscal policy will be a key focus for investors after the November election.
The global economy and the race for a vaccine
The development of a vaccine will play a role in shaping the global economic comeback in 2021.
If taxes move higher, demand for munis may surge
The likelihood of higher taxes in the future could boost demand for tax-advantaged investments including munis.
Keeping Japan's economy afloat after Abe
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation raises questions about the future of Abenomics and reform in Japan.
Investors returning to municipal bond funds
Municipal bond funds rebounded in the second quarter as investors returned to asset classes they abandoned early in the pandemic.
Muni-bond market slowly reviving from COVID-19 setback
The Fed helped the muni-bond market revive the muni-debt market as states and local governments grappled with revenue disruptions.
The Fed’s flexible new policy
The Fed announced a shift in its approach to monetary policy and the new strategy can be viewed as a flexible form of average inflation targeting.
The future is happening faster now
We rarely see as much disruption as we have seen in 2020, and we believe this offers investment opportunities.
Deglobalization creates new winners in China
The trade war, pandemic, and the Made in China 2025 initiative are resulting in a deglobalization trend and opportunities in China.
Staying at home increases spending on homes
As the economy continues to be challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic, we are seeing two notable trends in the U.S. housing industry.
The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker, are subject to change with market conditions, and are not meant as investment advice.